Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.007191 0.008098 0.009090 0.010258 0.011597 0.013089 0.014881
2024-10-27 0.005601 0.006792 0.008208 0.010025 0.012309 0.015103 0.018808
2024-11-03 0.004830 0.006150 0.007807 0.010061 0.013078 0.017016 0.022620
2024-11-10 0.004430 0.005871 0.007766 0.010473 0.014293 0.019570 0.027551
2024-11-17 0.003935 0.005387 0.007369 0.010316 0.014662 0.020958 0.030991
2024-11-24 0.003597 0.005069 0.007148 0.010353 0.015276 0.022724 0.035188
2024-12-01 0.003249 0.004696 0.006798 0.010143 0.015467 0.023840 0.038480
2024-12-08 0.003062 0.004534 0.006736 0.010351 0.016311 0.026057 0.043868
2024-12-15 0.002847 0.004309 0.006550 0.010335 0.016777 0.027689 0.048461
2024-12-22 0.002567 0.003955 0.006129 0.009889 0.016464 0.027941 0.050569
2024-12-29 0.002400 0.003768 0.005956 0.009835 0.016811 0.029379 0.055092
2025-01-05 0.002351 0.003766 0.006085 0.010306 0.018135 0.032743 0.063893
2025-01-12 0.002145 0.003493 0.005743 0.009931 0.017898 0.033200 0.066975
2025-01-19 0.001981 0.003279 0.005488 0.009691 0.017896 0.034127 0.071251
2025-01-26 0.001878 0.003161 0.005389 0.009727 0.018427 0.036184 0.078363
2025-02-02 0.001837 0.003149 0.005477 0.010123 0.019722 0.039997 0.090222
2025-02-09 0.001723 0.002996 0.005293 0.009972 0.019867 0.041353 0.096422
2025-02-16 0.001644 0.002900 0.005209 0.010008 0.020410 0.043659 0.105430
2025-02-23 0.001542 0.002755 0.005018 0.009805 0.020407 0.044705 0.111334
2025-03-02 0.001496 0.002712 0.005020 0.010006 0.021323 0.048041 0.124093
2025-03-09 0.001429 0.002623 0.004926 0.009990 0.021742 0.050227 0.134076
2025-03-16 0.001322 0.002451 0.004652 0.009561 0.021144 0.049789 0.136311
2025-03-23 0.001262 0.002368 0.004553 0.009509 0.021443 0.051695 0.146022